Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,071$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,845.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(37,845.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,717$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(31.5 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,285.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 67.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,285.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,921$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,015$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(851 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,408.9}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(116,408.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,814$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(37.4 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,052.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,052.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,955$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $156,061$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{503,466.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 63.6)}}\) (asimptote \(503,466.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,656$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(256 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,112.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(21,112.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83,720$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,219$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,836.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.2)}}\) (asimptote \(74,836.8\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $304$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(24.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{344.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(344.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,248$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,437$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(40.1 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,453.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(19,453.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $114$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(8.38 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,065$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,495$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(499 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,354.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(22,354.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $445$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(35.6 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{567.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(567.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,481$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,776$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(562 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,006.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,006.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $300$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(31.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{370.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(370.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,748$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $702$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(180 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{659.9}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 20.4)}}\) (asimptote \(659.9\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.12 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 21.5)}}\) (asimptote \(20.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171$ on 2020-05-09
